Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт физиологии, биохимии и питания животных – филиал Федерального государственного бюджетного научного учреждения «Федеральный научный центр животноводства – ВИЖ имени академика Л.К. Эрнста»
ABSTRACT. The viability of organisms and populations is a key integral category, the components of which can be genomics, metabolomics, flaxomics, epigenetics and other areas of biology that have emerged in recent decades. The need to expand research in this area is due to the negative trends in modern livestock production − the growth of "productivity diseases", the decline in reproduction, deterioration in the quality and safety of the products. The purpose of this work and the main sections are as follows: a brief review of the state of the problem, the possible approaches for estimating the partial mean values of length of productive life (LPL) of cows in a herd that is inhomogeneous in survival rate; a pilot model for assessing the efficiency of milk production for such a herd. For the breeding stock of productive animals, the viability may be understand as the functional capacity of systems ensuring productive longevity and fertility that are decreasing with age. According to concept of the author, the main factors determining the lifetime productivity of cows are the productivity potential (PP, potential milk yield for lactation without taking into account the age-related decline of protective mechanisms supporting lactation activity) and the viability potential (VP, initial constitutive resistance, predicators of longevity). The mean-group levels of these factors can now be determined from indirect information, i.e. from the data of the age dynamics of 305-d milk yields and culling rate at first lactations.
The value of LPL of cows largely depends on the "initial" level of viability indicators (at first lactation). The existence of this dependence is evidenced by empirical data and, as shown by the calculations, the analogous dependence follows from the general properties of the Gompertz function, traditionally used in the analysis of the survival of populations. Judging by the results of the calculations performed, the dependence of the milk production profitability on the average group LPL of cows, in different combinations of gradations PP and VP in the groups, may increase linearly, with the saturation effect, or may have a maximum with a subsequent decrease under a pronounced inverse relationship between PP and VP. The developed pilot computing model can find application for solving the problems of technological forecasting and optimizing the management of the herd after completion, taking into account specific technological and economic factors.
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