Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт физиологии, биохимии и питания животных – филиал Федерального государственного бюджетного научного учреждения «Федеральный научный центр животноводства – ВИЖ имени академика Л.К. Эрнста»
Kuznetsov V.M.
Rudnitsky Agricultural Research Center of the North-East,
Kirov, Russian FederationN
ABSTRACT. The aim was to study the influence of the complex of biozootechnical parameters (BZP) on the possibilities of expanded reproduction of dairy cattle using the computational model and production data in the Kirov, Leningrad, Moscow oblasts and the Russian Federation as a whole. Forecasting of herd dynamics was carried out on a flux model using the method of iterations with a discrete time scale. Variable BZP are the level of annual cow culling (CCOW), the duration of the service period (DO), the age of heifers at conception (AFH), the level of stillbirth (DOA), the level of culling heifers up to a year (CH1) and older than a year (CH2), the proportion of heifers born (PBH) on the average annual rate of increase/decrease in the number of cows (ΔY). With the closed breeding of the model herd with the initial population of 1000 cows, the reduction of the basic value of CCOW by 10% ΔY accelerated by 25.6%. Similar changes in the base values of DO, AFH, DOA, CH1 and CH2 resulted in an acceleration of ΔY by 4.4, 8.3, 1.4, 1.3 and 0.7%, respectively. Increase in the base value PBH by 10% led to the acceleration of ΔY by 26.2%. In the herd with the extremely "bad" BZP, cows had an average of 2.5 lactations, the yield of calves was 58%, and the livestock was reduced by 4% per year. In a herd with extremely "good" BZP, cows had an average of 5 lactations, a calf output of 97%, a livestock growth of 21% per year. The increase of the PBH up to 60% provided the simple reproduction in the herd with the extremely "bad" BZP, and in the herd with the extremely "good" BZP the growth rate of the herd population increased by 25%. The actual values of BZP of three real herds with 450, 1300 and 1200 cows can potentially provide extended reproduction at the level of 7, 5 and 10% per year. The CCOW decrease by 2-5% percentage point, DO by 10-30 days, AFH by 2 months will increase ΔY to 10-12% per year. In the Kirov region, at the actual BZP, a cattle population growth by 0.7% per year is possible (actual is 1.1%); in the Leningrad region by 2.2% per year (2.9%), in the Moscow region a reduction in cows is possible by 2% (-2.6%), in the whole population of the RF a decrease of 2.2% per year is possible ( -0.8%). If in all (sub)populations the CCOW is reduced to 30%, DO up to 110 days, AFH up to 16 months, then the livestock population can increase by 6-8% per year. Concluded that with the factor of realization of the forecast estimates of 75% it is possible to speak about quite achievable 4-6% of the annual growth rate of the livestock of Russian herds and dairy cattle populations at their closed breeding. This will accelerate the solution of the problem of import substitution and self-sufficiency of Russian country's population with milk and beef, will contribute to the preservation and restoration of the domestic gene pool.
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